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工后沉降预测是建筑物地基或路基的安全性评价及其加固维护方案决策的重要依据。为此,引入组合预测思想,首先通过探讨实测沉降数据新旧程度对工后沉降预测效果的影响规律,引入新鲜度函数,建立出考虑实测沉降数据新旧程度对沉降预测影响的分析模型;其次,通过研究沉降组合预测可能取值的变化规律,引进平行修正的思路,建立出有利于提高沉降组合预测精度的组合预测可能取值区间的调整方法;然后,在此研究基础上,提出了同时考虑实测沉降数据新旧程度和组合预测可能取值区间调整,对沉降预测效果影响的改进工后沉降组合预测新方法。最后,通过工程实例计算与比较分析,表明了改进的工后沉降组合预测方法的合理性与可行性。
Post-construction settlement prediction is an important basis for the safety evaluation of the foundation or subgrade of a building and the decision-making of its reinforcement and maintenance scheme. Therefore, the concept of combined forecasting is introduced. Firstly, the influence law of the measured settlement data on the forecasting effect of post-construction settlement is first discussed. The freshness function is introduced to establish the analytical model that considers the influence of the measured settlement data on the settlement prediction. Secondly, This paper studies the variation law of the possible values of the subsidence combination prediction and introduces the idea of parallel correction to establish the adjustment method of the possible value range of the combined forecast which is propitious to improve the precision of the subsidence combination forecasting prediction. Secondly, on the basis of this research, New and old degree of subsidence data and the possible value interval adjustment of combined forecast, and the new method of post - subsidence combined forecast for the influence of subsidence forecasting effect. Finally, through the calculation and comparison of engineering examples, it shows the rationality and feasibility of the improved combined forecasting method of post-construction settlement.