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非市场因素导致的信贷市场扭曲,是阻碍中国货币政策有效实施的重要原因,然而已有的货币政策理论大都忽视了这一点,通常基于完全市场假设建立模型,难以解释中国的现实情形。本文基于DSGE模型,着力刻画了国有、民营企业分别以非市场利率和市场利率获得贷款的非完全市场化经济,在此基础上分析中国货币政策工具对不同经济个体的影响。本文模型较好地拟合了实际经济,尤其是国有和民营企业在经济总体中的相对地位,结果发现:(1)各种货币政策对国企和民企的影响是非对称的,这导致从经济总体上来看,货币政策的执行效果和目标有所脱节;(2)总体而言,中国的货币政策是有效的,扩张的货币政策能在较长期内持续地促进产出,在短期内拉动投资的迅速提高,对于就业和家庭消费有持续的推动作用但力度有限;(3)最有效的货币政策工具,依据政策目标的不同而有所差异。本文的政策建议是,应考虑企业所有制差别对货币政策效果的影响,从而提高政策的针对性和有效性,加强政策间的协调配合。
The distortion of the credit market caused by non-market factors is an important reason that hinders the effective implementation of China’s monetary policy. However, most of the existing monetary policy theories ignore this point. It is usually difficult to explain China’s reality based on the assumption of complete market. Based on the DSGE model, this paper focuses on the incompletely market-oriented economy in which state-owned and private-owned enterprises obtain loans at non-market interest rates and market rates respectively. Based on this, it analyzes the impact of China’s monetary policy instruments on different economic entities. This model better fits the actual economy, especially the relative status of state-owned and private-owned enterprises in the overall economy. The results show that: (1) the influence of various monetary policies on SOEs and private-owned enterprises is asymmetric, On the whole, the implementation effect of monetary policy is not close to the goal; (2) Generally speaking, China’s monetary policy is effective. Expanded monetary policy can promote output continuously in the longer term and stimulate investment in the short term (3) The most effective monetary policy tools vary according to the policy objectives. The policy suggestion in this article is that we should consider the impact of the difference of ownership of enterprises on the effect of monetary policy so as to improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policies and strengthen the coordination and cooperation among policies.