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为进一步分析我国安全生产政策的实施效果及存在问题,根据政策时效干预度量化模型,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析等计量方法对1978—2006年我国特别重大事故发生趋势与政策时效干预力度关系进行量化分析,得出特别重大事故的发生与政策时效干预力度间存在长期均衡关系,且在10%的显著水平下,特别重大事故的发生是政策时效干预力度加强的格兰杰原因。同时分析表明,目前我国安全生产政策干预表现出两大缺点:被动性和滞后性。因此,应逐步开展生产安全事故宏观预警与政策模拟等研究,为提高安全生产宏观政策干预的主动性和前瞻性提供技术支持。
In order to further analyze the implementation effect and existing problems of safety production policy in our country, according to the quantitative model of the time limitation intervention of the policy, the co-integration test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are used to analyze the trend of the special major accidents in China from 1978 to 2006 And the relationship between the effectiveness of the policy and time-based intervention to quantify the analysis concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium between the occurrence of particularly serious accidents and the policy intervention in time, and at 10% of the significant level, the occurrence of particularly serious accidents is the strengthening of policy intervention Lanjie reason. At the same time, the analysis shows that there are two major shortcomings in the intervention of China’s work safety policies at present: passiveness and backwardness. Therefore, macro-early warning and policy simulation of production safety accidents should be gradually carried out to provide technical support for improving the proactive and forward-looking macro-intervention in production safety.