论文部分内容阅读
理论模型分析表明物质资本积累若具有正的内、外部性且人力资本积累能够实现对物质资本积累的替代,则经济增长是可持续的。笔者对中国1978年~2010年数据的检验证实了上述理论模型能够解释改革开放以来的中国经济增长,实证分析还表明上世纪90年代中后期以来中国实际GDP增长放缓主要是由于物质资本积累的正内部性出现显著下降造成的,而人力资本、物质资本积累的非均衡是导致这一局面的根本原因。因此,有效地进行人力资本积累对中国今后的经济增长而言至关重要。
Theoretical model analysis shows that if the accumulation of physical capital has positive internal and external factors and human capital accumulation can replace the accumulation of material capital, then the economic growth is sustainable. The author’s examination of China’s data from 1978 to 2010 confirms that the above theoretical model can explain the growth of China’s economy since the reform and opening up. The empirical analysis also shows that the slowdown in real GDP growth in China since the middle and late 1990s was mainly due to the accumulation of material capital Positive internal decline caused by a significant, and human capital, physical capital accumulation is the root cause of this imbalance. Therefore, the effective accumulation of human capital is of crucial importance to China’s future economic growth.