论文部分内容阅读
笔者根据DSGE模型,首次全面考虑价格黏性和工资黏性,对产出缺口、通货膨胀预期、利率及工资之间动态关系采用高阶滞后DSGE模型建模,结果显示考虑价格黏性和工资黏性的DSGE模型对我国宏观经济波动拟合效果较好,通货膨胀预期冲击对宏观经济变量影响不可忽视,滞后时间为1年到2年半,我国工资黏性特征不如价格黏性特征明显,调整时间为半年,货币政策冲击对通货膨胀和利率影响较快,通货膨胀预期冲击、劳动供给替代弹性冲击和货币政策冲击能够解释宏观经济变量波动的大部分,央行采用价格型货币政策工具需考虑预期效应,政策制定应及时发布消息,提高政策透明度,从而增强政策的长期有效性。
Based on the DSGE model, the author firstly considers the price stickiness and the wage stickiness in the first place and adopts the high-order lagged DSGE model to model the dynamic relationship between output gap, inflation expectation, interest rate and wages. The result shows that considering price stickiness and wage stickiness The effect of the expected DSGE model on China’s macroeconomic volatility is better. The impact of expected inflationary impact on macroeconomic variables can not be neglected. The lag time is between 1 year and 2 years and a half. The wage viscous characteristics of China are not as obvious as the price viscous characteristics. Time is six months, the impact of monetary policy impact on inflation and interest rates faster, expected impact of inflation, elastic supply of labor supply elasticity and monetary policy shocks can explain most of the volatility of macroeconomic variables, the central bank to adopt price-based monetary policy tools to be expected to consider Effect, policy-making should promptly release information, improve policy transparency, thereby enhancing the long-term effectiveness of the policy.