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机场是民航事故的高发区,机场的医疗应急物资及装备具有重要的战略意义。针对生命周期较短且要求质量高的医疗应急物资及装备,本文建立了应急准备阶段单个事故发生的应急物资储备决策模型。模型考虑了事故发生时间和物资需求的不确定性,包括了风险中性和风险规避准则下的随机事故发生时间决策和确定事故发生时间决策,得出应急物资最优库存水平不仅与物资保质期有关,还与随机变量的分布有关;事故发生时间的不确定性对不同风险准则下的最优决策是不同的;利用概率密度函数再次验证了风险规避准则下的决策是平衡风险和费用损失的结果。
Airport is a high incidence of civil aviation accidents, the airport’s emergency medical supplies and equipment has important strategic significance. For short-life and high-quality medical emergency supplies and equipment, this paper established emergency material reserve decision-making model of a single accident occurred in emergency preparation stage. The model takes into account the uncertainties of accident occurrence time and material requirements, including the decision of random accident time and the decision of accident occurrence time under risk neutrality and risk avoidance criteria, and concludes that the optimal inventory level of emergency supplies is not only related to the shelf life of materials , But also with the distribution of random variables. The uncertainty of accident time is different for the optimal decision under different risk criteria. The probability density function is used to verify that the decision-making under risk aversion criterion is the result of balance risk and cost loss .