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将西北干旱区的冰川作为独立系统 ,估算其“小冰期”以来和近数十年的冰川变化量、物质平衡变化值 .在此基础上 ,模拟保持当前气候状态和气候进一步变化背景下 ,冰川径流达到临界状态的时间 .
Taking the glaciers in the arid regions of northwestern China as an independent system, we estimate the change of glaciers and mass balance since the “Little Ice Age” and the recent decades, and on the basis of simulating the changes of current climate and climate, Runoff to reach the critical state of the time.