传染病疫情预测对于及时制定防治对策、组织药品供应、降低发病率与病死率有着很大的现实意义。对流脑、乙脑、流感等病的预测,各地积累了不少经验。我们只是近年来才刚刚开始这项工作,经验很少。现将我们对流脑流行预测的一些方法介绍如下,望批评指正。预测流脑流行的根据流脑的流行有一定特点,我们预测就是根据这些特点。主要有以下几点: 一、“周期”性流行和“阶梯”样升降:在人口稠密、交通便利、而防疫工作又较薄弱的地区,流脑仍然呈 Prediction of epidemic situation of infectious diseases is of great practical significance in formulating prevention and control measures, organizing drug supply in a timely manner, and reducing morbidity and mortality. Convection brain, Japanese encephalitis, flu and other diseases forecast, has accumulated a lot of experience. We have only just started the work in recent years with little experience. Now we forecast some of the methods of epidemiological epidemic described below, hope the criticism. Predict the prevalence of meningitis according to the prevalence of meningitis have some characteristics, we predict that is based on these characteristics. Mainly in the following points: First, the “cyclical” epidemic and “ladder” like movements: in a densely populated, convenient transportation, and epidemic prevention and weaker areas, the meningitis is still