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利用2001-2014年间中国工业39个行业消费8种主要能源和电力数据,运用对数平均指数分解法对各年工业部门能源消耗活动碳排放增长的影响因子及其影响程度进行估算。研究表明:产出增长是导致工业部门碳排放增长最重要的原因,能源强度是碳减排最重要的因素,能源结构的变化在一定程度上可降低工业部门碳排放水平,部门结构的变化在大多数年份增加了碳排放量,且对碳排放的影响具有很大的不确定性。
Based on the eight main energy and power consumption data of 39 industries in China’s industry during 2001-2014, the logarithmic average exponential decomposition method was used to estimate the impact factors and their impact on the growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption activities in the industrial sector in each year. The results show that the increase of output is the most important factor leading to the growth of carbon emissions in the industrial sector. Energy intensity is the most important factor in reducing carbon emissions. The change of energy structure can reduce the carbon emissions in the industrial sector to a certain extent. Most years increased carbon emissions, and the impact on carbon emissions with great uncertainty.