在2015年10月7日美国企业研究所主办的“中国的紧缩泡沫——来自日本的经验教训”会议上,作者结合战后全球发展模式(经济产出是人力资本和营商环境的函数),阐述了对中国经济增长前景的判断:中国在2010-2035年将经历低速增长。对于中国的下一代,GDP增长背后的人力资本投入将急速下降。要提振经济增长,唯有显著改善营商环境。中国改革开放以来,经济高速增长,举世瞩目,问题是中国的增长模式属于 At the meeting titled “China’s Deflationary Bubbles - Lessons from Japan” hosted by the American Enterprise Institute on October 7, 2015, the author, in conjunction with the post-war global development model (economic output is human capital and business environment Function) that sets out the judgment of China’s economic growth prospects that China will experience slow growth in 2010-2035. For China’s next generation, the human capital investment behind GDP growth will drop rapidly. To boost economic growth, only a significant improvement in the business environment will be achieved. Since China’s reform and opening up, the rapid economic growth has attracted worldwide attention. The problem is that China’s growth model belongs to