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本文立足于生态经济理论,利用系统动力学模型方法和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,构建青海省“资源-环境-经济系统”结构模型,表明经济增长、资源枯竭和环境影响之间的反馈关系。包括8个子系统:生产子系统,人口子系统,人力资本子系统,人造资本子系统,不可更新资源子系统,可更新自然资源子系统,技术子系统,环境污染子系统。采用系统动力学专用模拟分析软件VENSIM PLE5.4模拟青海省“资源-环境-经济系统”可能的运行情景,对青海省“资源-环境-经济系统”运行规律进行探索,旨在揭示青海省不同发展模式下的环境响应,为青海省的可持续发展决策提供参考,也为环境友好型社会建设提供理论依据。结果表明:青海省经济发展对自然资源的依赖性强,可持续发展难以实现;技术对经济增长的贡献十分突出,对自然资源表现出弱可替代性;青海省应当转变经济发展模式,发展循环经济;国家投资是青海省环境友好型建设的重要保障。关键词:生态经济;系统动力学;资源-环境-经济系统;青海省
Based on the theory of eco-economy, this paper constructs the structural model of “resource-environment-economy system” in Qinghai province by using the method of system dynamics model and Cobb-Douglas production function to show the feedback between economic growth, resource depletion and environmental impact relationship. Including eight subsystems: production subsystem, population subsystem, human capital subsystem, artificial capital subsystem, non-renewable resource subsystem, renewable natural resource subsystem, technology subsystem, environmental pollution subsystem. The system dynamics simulation software VENSIM PLE5.4 is used to simulate the possible operation scenarios of “resource-environment-economy system” in Qinghai province and to explore the operation rules of “resource-environment-economy system” in Qinghai province, aiming at Revealing the environmental response under different development modes in Qinghai Province, providing reference for the sustainable development in Qinghai Province and providing a theoretical basis for the construction of environment-friendly society. The results show that: the economic development in Qinghai Province is highly dependent on natural resources and sustainable development is difficult to realize; the contribution of technology to economic growth is very prominent, showing weak substitutability to natural resources; and Qinghai Province should change its mode of economic development and develop a cycle Economy; national investment is an important guarantee for environment-friendly construction in Qinghai Province. Key words: eco-economy; system dynamics; resource-environment-economy system; Qinghai Province