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基于市场微观参与主体和基于货币/信用是研究资产泡沫演化的两大分析范式,但其并未对泡沫演化的源动力做出明确解答。鉴于此,本文从经济增长约束的周期性转变视角对资产泡沫演化动力机制问题进行系统性分析。伴随经济周期性波动,融资约束、实体经济约束和需求约束交替放松与收紧,为资产泡沫的生成、膨胀和破灭提供其所必备的条件。资产泡沫本质上是经济增长过程中不断解除增长约束所产生的货币现象。制度差异使中国资产泡沫缘起具有其特殊性,但基于增长约束的分析框架亦可用于解释中国资产泡沫演化。
Based on the market microscopic participants and monetary / credit research on the evolution of asset bubbles two analytical paradigms, but it did not give a clear answer to the source of the bubble evolution. In view of this, this article systematically analyzes the motivation mechanism of asset bubbles evolution from the perspective of the cyclical transformation of economic growth constraints. With the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, the financing constraints, the real economy constraints and the demand constraints are alternately relaxed and tightened, providing the necessary conditions for the formation, expansion and collapse of the asset bubble. The asset bubble is essentially a monetary phenomenon resulting from the constant lifting of the growth constraint in the process of economic growth. Institutional differences make the origin of Chinese asset bubbles unique, but the analytical framework based on growth constraints can also be used to explain the evolution of asset bubbles in China.