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从竖向刚度和平顺性二方面入手,考虑徐变、钢筋锈蚀等不同因素对时变刚度的影响,建立桥梁静活载产生的弹性挠度变形模型和恒载产生的长期挠度变形模型.将弹性挠度值和长期挠度值分别作为对竖向刚度和平顺性评估的指标,应用贝叶斯推衍模型,以先验模型为基础,融合t0时刻的工程检测数据,对t0时刻上述指标进行更新推衍并与允许值对比;以更新后的先验模型为基础,通过分析其变化趋势及与允许值间的关系,实现对重载铁路桥梁服役性能随运营时间演变的评估和预测.通过在工程实测中的应用表明评估结果与实际情况符合较好.
Considering the influence of creep and reinforcement corrosion on the time-dependent stiffness, the model of elastic deflection caused by static load of bridge and the model of long-term deflection produced by constant load are established from two aspects of vertical stiffness and ride comfort. Deflection value and long-term deflection value, respectively, as a vertical stiffness and ride comfort evaluation index, the application of Bayesian deduction model, based on a priori model, fusion t0 engineering test data at the moment of t0 to update the above indicators Based on the updated a priori model, by analyzing the relationship between the change trend and the allowable value, the evaluation and prediction of the service performance of heavy haul railway bridges with the evolution of operating time are realized. The practical application shows that the evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual situation.