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从经济社会发展角度,构建基于经济文化强省建设目标的山东经济社会承载力指标体系,分别预测对山东人口发展有显著制约作用的8项要素的人口承载力;利用专家咨询法测算得到两个系统中各个指标的权重值,预测出经济发展承载力及社会进步承载力,最后得到经济社会承载力的阈值。研究结果表明,2020年山东进入全面小康社会时,预期人口将处于经济社会系统承载力范围内;2050年实现基本现代化时,预期人口仍将处于承载力范围之内,但盈余数量减少。山东的经济社会因素不是人口承载力的主要瓶颈,经济发展对人口承载力的影响呈减弱趋势,社会进步对人口承载力则表现出越来越强的制约性。
From the perspective of economic and social development, we set up an index system of Shandong’s economic and social carrying capacity based on the goal of a strong economic and cultural province, respectively predicting the population carrying capacity of the eight elements that have a significant restrictive effect on the population development in Shandong Province. Using the expert consultation method, we obtain two The weight of each indicator in the system predicts the bearing capacity of economic development and the carrying capacity of social progress and finally obtains the threshold of economic and social carrying capacity. The results show that in 2020, when Shandong enters an overall well-to-do society, it is expected that the population will fall within the carrying capacity of the economic and social system. When the basic modernization is realized in 2050, the population is expected to remain within the scope of its carrying capacity but with a decrease in the number of surpluses. The economic and social factors of Shandong are not the main bottleneck of the carrying capacity of the population. The impact of economic development on the carrying capacity of the population is weaker and the progress of social development is more and more constraining to the carrying capacity of the population.