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消费结构的变动对于产业结构的调整具有决定性影响。因此,预测消费结构变动趋势是制定我国中长期经济发展战略的重要基础工作。国内外大量实证研究材料表明,虽然影响消费结构变动的经济、社会、自然因素众多,但是决定性因素是居民收入或消费支出水平。根据消费收入或支出水平变动决定消费结构变动的基本假设,我们利用1978—1993年城乡居民家庭收支抽样调查资料(城镇采用时序资料和若干年份的按收入等级分组横截面资料相结合的办法,农村采用时序资料和若干年份分省横截面资料相结合的办法)建立了有关计算经济模型,预测1995—2010年我国城乡居民消费结构。
The changes in the consumption structure have a decisive influence on the adjustment of the industrial structure. Therefore, forecasting the changing trend of consumption structure is an important basic work in formulating China’s medium and long-term economic development strategy. A large number of empirical studies at home and abroad show that although there are many economic, social and natural factors that affect the changes in the consumption structure, the decisive factor is the level of household income or consumption expenditure. Based on the basic assumption that changes in consumer income or expenditure levels determine the changes in the consumption structure, we use the sampling data of urban-rural household incomes and expenditures from 1978 to 1993 (a combination of time-series data from urban areas and cross-sectional data by income level for several years, The method of combining the time series data with the cross-sectional data of provinces in a number of years has been established in rural areas to calculate the economic model and predict the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in China during 1995-2010.