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钢是国家工业化演进过程中不可或缺的重要战略性金属。对经济产出和钢社会蓄积之间的关系进行研究,能够为钢的可持续使用提供理论支撑,为循环经济战略的制定提供科学依据。利用国际上新兴的动态物质流分析方法,本文首先对1949~2013年钢的社会蓄积状况进行了测算,然后利用近年来发展的非线性STR模型技术等方法,对经济产出与钢社会蓄积之间的内在依从关系进行了分析。研究结果表明,我国经济产出与钢社会蓄积在短期内互为格兰杰因果关系,从长期来看,存在由经济产出到钢社会蓄积的单向格兰杰因果关系。经济产出对钢社会蓄积的非线性影响可以通过LSTR2模型来描述,并且具有阶段性特征。在1954~1977年,经济产出对钢社会蓄积的影响在线性和非线性之间交替转换;在1978~2013年,经济产出对钢社会蓄积的影响呈现线性特征。
Steel is an important and strategic metal that is indispensable to the industrialization of the country. Studying the relationship between economic output and steel social accumulation can provide theoretical support for the sustainable use of steel and provide a scientific basis for the formulation of circular economy strategy. Using the new dynamic material flow analysis method in the world, this paper first calculates the social accumulation status of steel from 1949 to 2013, and then uses the nonlinear STR model technology developed in recent years to analyze the relationship between economic output and steel social accumulation Between the internal compliance was analyzed. The results show that in the short run, China’s economic output and steel social accumulation are Granger causality, and in the long run, there is one-way Granger causality between economic output and steel social accumulation. The nonlinear effect of economic output on the social accumulation of steel can be described by the LSTR2 model with periodic characteristics. In 1954-1977, the impact of economic output on the social accumulation of steel alternated between linear and non-linear. From 1978 to 2013, the impact of economic output on the social accumulation of steel presented a linear characteristic.