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在分析西江流域的天气系统和多年实测大洪水过程的基础上,提出了西江连续发生大洪水并且对下游防洪构成威胁的可能性不大。可以根据西江流域这一特大洪水的活动规律合理制定各个骨干水库在各个时段的调洪原则,从而达到缩小水库的建设规模,减少防洪库容和淹没损失的投资。此分析成果可作为大藤峡防洪规模论证以及对于西江流域骨干水库防洪调度方案的参考依据。
Based on the analysis of the weather system in the Xijiang River Basin and the flood events measured over many years, it is not possible to find out the continuous floods in the Xijiang River and pose a threat to the downstream flood control. Based on the law of activity of this extremely large flood in the Xijiang River Basin, the principle of flood control of all key reservoirs can be reasonably formulated so as to reduce the construction scale of reservoirs and reduce the investment of flood control reservoir and inundation loss. The results of this analysis can be used as a demonstration of the large-scale flood prevention in the Gorge and a reference for the flood control and regulation of the key reservoirs in the Xijiang River Basin.