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2008年以后,全球经济在短暂反弹后陷入了长期停滞。联合国经济和社会事务部(UN/DESA)在2016年初的估算显示:与危机前5年相比,危机之后的5年当中,20个主要发达国家经济增速整体放缓了1.5个百分点,20个主要发展中国家则放缓了2个百分点。2014年,G20领导人提出了通过经济政策协调,在5年内将全球经济增速提升2个百分点的宏伟目标。2016年已经是第三年,而在最近的一次评估中,IMF认为这一目标最终可能只能完成0.8个百分点。在长期增长停滞的背景下,美国、英国和印度开始修改GDP统计口径,日本和欧洲国家不断突破传统货币政策的框架,但是却迟迟未见釜底抽薪的结构性改革政策。2016年的G20峰会和全球经济治理,已经进入到中国主场时间。如何认识全球经济面临的实际症结?如何将中国参与全球治理与国内的供给侧改革相联系起来,协调推进?本次笔谈专门邀请了中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所《全球经济治理结构变化与我国应对战略研究》课题组的四位成员,从全球技术进步放缓、劳动力市场的结构性问题、全球投资下滑、国际贸易治理规则四大角度进行了讨论。
After 2008, the global economy fell into a long-term stagnation after a brief rally. Estimates by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN / DESA) in early 2016 show that in the five years after the crisis, the economic growth in the 20 major developed countries in general slowed by 1.5 percentage points over the first five years of the crisis, 20 The major developing countries slowed by 2 percentage points. In 2014, the leaders of the G20 set forth the ambitious goal of boosting the global economic growth by 2 percentage points within five years through economic policy coordination. 2016 is the third year, and in a recent assessment, the IMF concluded that this goal could eventually be completed by just 0.8 percentage points. Against the background of long-term growth stagnation, the United States, the United Kingdom and India began to revise the statistical standards of GDP while Japan and European countries continued to break the framework of traditional monetary policy. However, there was still no structural reform policy drastic. 2016 G20 summit and global economic governance, has entered the Chinese home time. How to Understand the Practical Problems Faced by the Global Economy? How to Connect China’s Participation in Global Governance with the Supply-Side Reform in China? Coordinating and Promoting? This written interview specifically invited the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, “Changes in the Structure of Global Economic Governance and China’s Strategic Research Group, ”the four members of the research group discussed the following four perspectives from the global technological slowdown, the structural problems of the labor market, the decline of global investment and the rules governing international trade.