论文部分内容阅读
研究气象站点密度在当日雨量和前期有效雨量因子内插中的影响程度,对提高对这2个因子的内插精度有重要的意义。本文针对我国东南地区87个泥石流灾害点和207个站点的降水资料,建立站点密度在5%~100%间变化的空间采样方案,采用反距离加权法(IDW)计算不同站点密度下泥石流灾害点的当日雨量和前期有效雨量。利用分位数方法对站点密度与当日雨量和前期有效雨量的关系进行分析,结果表明:诱发泥石流灾害的当日雨量和前期有效雨量的内插值,均随着气象站点密度的降低呈减少趋势;前期有效雨量的内插值相对于当日雨量的内插要稳定一些。在站点密度大于5%的情况下内插的前期有效雨量可以保持60%以上的雨量值,而当日雨量只大于30%。
It is of great significance to study the influence of meteorological site density on day rainfall and pre-effective rainfall factor interpolation to improve the interpolation accuracy of these two factors. According to the precipitation data of 87 debris flow sites and 207 stations in the southeast region of China, this paper establishes a spatial sampling scheme with site densities ranging from 5% to 100%, and uses inverse distance weighted method (IDW) to calculate the debris flow hazard under different site densities Of the day’s rainfall and pre-effective rainfall. The quantile method was used to analyze the relationship between the site density and the current rainfall and the previous effective rainfall. The results show that the interpolation of the rainfall on the day and the effective rainfall during the period of induced debris flow decrease with the decrease of the density of the meteorological station. Interpolation of effective rainfall is stable relative to the day’s rainfall interpolation. When the site density is more than 5%, the effective rainfall in the previous period of interpolation can maintain more than 60% of the rainfall, while the daily rainfall is only more than 30%.