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本文构建了包含商业银行部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,以银行风险承担等因素引起的住房信贷摩擦为主要途径,研究中央银行货币政策通过商业银行信贷供给决策对宏观经济的影响。研究表明:(1)商业银行住房信贷结构性摩擦的存在显著放大了央行货币政策通过房价对宏观经济的影响;(2)在此环境下,考虑房价的货币政策能够有效降低关键宏观经济变量波动性并提高社会福利;(3)在住房市场调控的背景下,包含房价的货币政策能够使因住房信贷摩擦而长期偏离稳态的消费、社会总产出、房价向长期均衡收敛。最后,本文指出将住房市场风险等因素内生化于商业银行信贷决策过程之中是实现房地产业健康发展的重要保障。
This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the commercial banking sector. Taking the credit risk of housing caused by factors such as bank risk as the main approach, this paper studies the macroeconomic impact of the monetary policy of the central bank through the credit supply of commercial banks. The results show that: (1) The structural friction of commercial bank housing credit significantly magnifies the macroeconomic impact of central bank monetary policy through housing prices; (2) In this environment, the monetary policy considering housing prices can effectively reduce the volatility of key macroeconomic variables (3) Under the background of regulation and control of housing market, the monetary policy including housing price can make the long-term equilibrium convergence of house prices offset by long-term deviation from steady-state consumption due to the friction of housing credit, social output. Finally, this article points out that it is an important guarantee to realize the healthy development of the real estate industry that endogenous factors such as the housing market risk in the credit decision-making process of commercial banks.