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为了解1990年以来鲁南地区热量资源变化情况,将资料分为近15 a(1991—2005)及前30 a(1961-1990年)两组,用K-W检验分析两组样本是否有显著差异,并用一元线性回归模型的回归系数估算未来气候变暖时热量资源的变化。结果表明:1991-2005年鲁南地区与前30 a相比,年平均气温明显升高,≥0℃及≥10℃积温及持续日数明显增加,无霜期明显延长,热量资源显著增加。当未来气候变暖时,年平均气温每升高1℃,≥0℃积温将增加308~309℃.d,持续日数延长15~16天,≥10℃积温将增加235~248℃.d,持续日数延长6~8天,无霜期将延长9~14天。
In order to understand the change of heat resources in Lunan area since 1990, the data were divided into two groups: the recent 15 a (1991-2005) and the first 30 a (1961-1990). The KW test was used to analyze whether there was a significant difference between the two samples. The regression coefficient of the linear regression model was used to estimate the change of caloric resources in the future climate warming. The results showed that the average annual temperature in Lunan was significantly higher than that in the first 30 years from 1991 to 2005. The accumulated temperature and the number of days ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ increased obviously, the frost-free period was significantly prolonged, and the caloric resources increased significantly. When the climate warms in the future, when the annual average temperature is increased by 1 ℃, the accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ will increase by 308 ~ 309 ℃ .d, the duration of continuous days will be prolonged by 15 ~ 16 days and the accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ will increase by 235 ~ 248 ℃. The duration of the extension of 6 to 8 days, frost-free period will be extended 9 to 14 days.