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农作物病虫害风险的研究,对有效防御病虫害发生、制定相应的防御对策及有效评估病虫害造成的损失有重大意义。利用吉林省50个县市的玉米、水稻和大豆产量、面积资料,及相应各站1961-2009年主要病虫害——玉米螟、稻瘟病、大豆蚜资料,根据灾害发生的频数确定病虫害影响指数,分析了各因子的影响程度。通过将各因子极差化处理,计算出综合风险防御指数,对吉林省主要农作物病虫害高、中、低风险防御区进行了区划评估。
Research on the crop pest risk is of great significance to effectively prevent the occurrence of pests and diseases, to formulate the corresponding defensive countermeasures and to effectively evaluate the losses caused by pests and diseases. Based on the data of maize, paddy and soybean production and area in 50 counties and cities in Jilin Province and the data of main pests and diseases of corn borer, rice blast and soybean aphid from 1961 to 2009 in each station, the pest and disease index was determined according to the frequency of disaster occurrence, The impact of each factor is analyzed. Through the extreme treatment of each factor, the comprehensive risk defense index was calculated, and the zoning assessment of high, medium and low-risk defensive areas of main crop pests and diseases in Jilin Province was carried out.