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根据南阳市方城县赵河镇2004-2013年小麦蚜虫和小麦纹枯病的发生情况,结合对应年旬的气象资料,采用相关统计分析方法,确定关键气象因子。对这些因子及其与病虫害发生程度的关系运一进行分析,分别建立了小麦蚜虫和小麦纹枯病发生程度的预测模型:Y_1=11.888-1.019X_(11)-0.024X_(16);Y_2=6.746-0.301X_2-0.018X_(13)。经对历史资料进行回代检验,与往年发生情况基本吻合,说明这两个预测模型对小麦病虫害的发生预报有一定的应用参考价值。
According to the occurrence of wheat aphids and wheat sheath blight in Zhaohe town, Fangcheng county, Nanyang city from 2004 to 2013, the relevant meteorological data were used to determine the key meteorological factors by statistical analysis. Based on the analysis of these factors and their relationship with the occurrence of pests, the prediction models for the occurrence of wheat aphids and wheat sheath blight were established respectively: Y_1 = 11.888-1.019X_ (11) -0.024X_ (16); Y_2 = 6.746-0.301X_2-0.018X_ (13). The historical data back to the test, and the occurrence of previous years is basically consistent, indicating that these two prediction models for the occurrence of wheat pests and diseases have some application of reference value.