【摘 要】
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Many designed and measured values in anti-sliding stability of gravity dam are uncertain.Most of existing fuzzy-random risk analysis methods are based on the possibility theory and describe structural
【机 构】
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State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanji
【出 处】
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2016年全国大坝安全监测技术与应用学术交流会
论文部分内容阅读
Many designed and measured values in anti-sliding stability of gravity dam are uncertain.Most of existing fuzzy-random risk analysis methods are based on the possibility theory and describe structural failure risk ratio by combining possibility measure and probability measure.Risk ratio described by these methods has a probability interval of fuzzy confidence level and will result in fuzzy evaluation.To overcome this shortage,credibility theory was used to map the membership function of fuzzy variables from possibility measure into probability measure.Characteristics of randomness and fuzziness can be processed in the same frame.The credibility theory-Monte Carlo simulation model was explored and applied to calculate failure risk ratio of gravity dam.Results showed that the proposed method could express probability risk ratio involving system randomness and fuzziness in determined values, which is conducive to risk evaluation and index determination.This method possessespromising application prospects.
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