针对目前很多学者关于我国社会养老保险制度应尽快向基金制转轨的观点,本文通过利用戴蒙德模型比较分析现收现付制和基金制对储蓄的影响,发现现收现付制一定程度上能降低储蓄,而基金制则无任何积极影响。本文的实证研究也证明了这一点。此外,文章又在此基础上根据黄金律提出,中国目前的储蓄水平一直高于最优经济增长下的储蓄量,盲目推行基金制改革必然导致中国储蓄水平居高不下,进而不利于经济持续增长。因此,目前中国不适宜向基金制转轨。 In view of the fact that many Chinese scholars nowadays think that the social pension insurance system in our country should transition to the fund system as soon as possible, this paper analyzes the impact of the PAYG and the fund system on savings through the use of the Diamond model, and finds that PAYG can be reduced to a certain extent Savings, while the fund system did not have any positive impact. The empirical study of this paper also proves this point. In addition, on the basis of this article, the article also proposes according to the golden rule that China’s current savings level has been higher than the savings under the optimal economic growth. The blind implementation of the reform of the fund system will inevitably lead to a high level of savings in China, which in turn is not conducive to sustained economic growth . Therefore, at present China is not suitable to transition to the fund system.