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针对多个医生医疗环境下具有提前预约和当天预约两类预约患者的门诊预约问题,在考虑提前预约患者可能存在爽约行为的情形下,提出了一种用于决定是否接受提前预约患者的预约请求的门诊预约决策方法.文中首先以医院的期望收益最大作为决策目标,建立了患者存在爽约行为的医疗预约问题的马尔可夫过程模型;然后基于所建立模型的特征,证明了对于任意的提前预约时段,均存在对应于每个医生的提前预约患者的最优预约数量的上界,且此上界随着患者爽约概率的增加而增加,随着预约所有医生的患者总数的增加而减小;进一步地,给出了该门诊预约问题的一种预约决策方法以及确定该方法的精确算法;最后,通过数值实验说明了本文所提出的决策方法的适用性和有效性.
Aiming at the outpatient reservation problem of two types of appointment patients with advance reservation and same-day reservation under multiple medical conditions of the doctor, a reservation request for determining whether or not to accept the reservation in advance is proposed in the case of considering the possible premature reservation behavior of patients in advance reservation Outpatient reservation decision-making method.In this paper, the Markov process model of the medical reservation with the covert behavior of the patient is established by taking the hospital maximum expected return as the decision-making target. Then, based on the characteristics of the established model, Period, there is an upper bound corresponding to each doctor’s pre-appointment patient’s optimal number of appointments, and this upper bound increases as the patient’s probability of disagreement increases, decreasing as the total number of patients reserving all physicians increases; Furthermore, a reservation decision method and an exact algorithm for determining the outpatient reservation problem are given. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to show the applicability and validity of the decision method proposed in this paper.