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预测是人类对未来事件的状态所进行的推测和估量。预测的目的是为决策提供依据。它已被广泛应用于各种社会实践,并日益受到重视。预测科学是现代管理科学最活跃、发展最快的学科,预测的方法已多达百余种。 一、预测的程序、原则及特点 预测的基本程序可分为以下环节:(1)明确预测的对象和要达到的目标。对要预测的对象不清楚,要达到的目标不明确,也就无法进行预测。(2)收集和分析历史资料。要特别注意资料的可靠性、时间性。(3)建立预测模型。要进行定量预测必须建立数学模型许多新的预测技术在这方面不断有所创新。定量预测可以与定性预测互相补充印证,两者的科学结合可以提供更可靠的决策依据。(4)修
Prediction is the speculation and estimation of the state of future events by human beings. The purpose of the forecast is to provide a basis for decision-making. It has been widely used in various social practices and has received increasing attention. Predictive science is the most active and fastest-growing discipline in modern management science. The prediction method has reached more than 100 species. First, the prediction process, principles and characteristics The basic process of prediction can be divided into the following sections: (1) Clear prediction of the object and the goal to be achieved. It is unclear to the object to be predicted, the goal to be achieved is not clear, and it is impossible to predict. (2) Collect and analyze historical data. Pay special attention to the reliability and timeliness of the data. (3) Establish a prediction model. Mathematical models must be established to make quantitative predictions. Many new prediction techniques continue to innovate in this area. Quantitative prediction can be complemented with qualitative predictions. The scientific combination of the two can provide a more reliable basis for decision making. (4) Repair