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通过对黄河中下游棉区棉铃虫（ＨｅｌｉｃｏｖｅｒｐａａｒｍｉｇｅｒａＨｕｂｎｅｒ）暴发宏观诸因子的分析。重点讨论：（１）具主导意义的宏观气候因子的作用，明确了旱涝变化与棉铃虫的消长有一致的趋势，由此做出了棉铃虫暴发适宜气候年的宏观趋势估计，与１９９３年前后的实际大发生吻合。（２）棉铃虫暴发的内在因子作用，即对环境因子的适应性反应，如抗药性增强、多食性危害加剧等。（３）人为因子的重要作用。（４）综合治理方面，强调了系统治理的观点，系统预测预报，技术、行政和物资管理的统一，以及综合效益治理等策略。
Based on the macroscopic analysis of Helicoverpa armigera Huber outbreak in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. The main discussion is as follows: (1) The dominant macro-climate factors play a role in clarifying that there is a consistent trend of changes in drought and floodwaters with the growth and development of the cotton bollworm. Based on this, a macro-trend assessment of the suitable climate year for the outbreak of the cotton bollworm is made. Before and after the actual big coincidence. (2) The intrinsic factor of bollworm outbreak, that is, the adaptive response to environmental factors, such as enhanced resistance, increased risk of eating more and so on. (3) the important role of human factors. (4) On the aspect of comprehensive management, the opinions of system management, system forecasting and forecasting, the unification of technology, administration and material management, and the strategy of comprehensive benefit management are emphasized.