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针对工程造价精益化与规范化管控的要求及造价区间各年差异较大的现状,本文结合近年来积累的工程数据资料,以2013~2015年110kV电压等级、导线截面240-400mm~2的线路工程为例,对其结算数据进行实证研究,通过混合高斯分布模型计算了当前编制年的造价控制线,并分析了工程数据覆盖范围,给出不同的区间供决策者选用。结果表明,混合高斯分布模型的应用能够得到合理的造价控制线水平,造价控制线的设置既符合实际又能发挥标尺作用,从而提高管理效率和灵活性。
In view of the requirements of project cost leanization and standardization control and the big difference in the cost interval in different years, this article combines the project data accumulated in recent years with the voltage of 110kV in 2013 ~ 2015, the line project of 240-400mm ~ 2 As an example, an empirical study of its settlement data was conducted. The cost control line of the current preparation year was calculated by using a mixed Gaussian distribution model. The coverage of engineering data was analyzed and different intervals were given for decision makers’ selection. The results show that the application of the mixed Gaussian distribution model can get a reasonable level of cost control line, and the setting of cost control line can not only meet the real but also play a role of scale, so as to improve management efficiency and flexibility.