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通过对平凉市25年(1984～2008年)的小麦条锈病病情和气象资料综合分析,筛选出影响本市小麦条锈病越夏菌量、秋苗发病、翌年春季流行趋势的主要因子,并应用逐步回归方法建立了本市小麦条锈病越夏菌量、秋苗发病、翌年春季流行趋势预测模型。回测结果表明,模型预测准确率达73.9%～82.6%。对准确预测小麦条锈病短、中、长期发生流行趋势,指导当地乃至全国冬麦区适期开展综合治理、及时控制其为害,有着重要的作用。
Based on the comprehensive analysis of wheat stripe rust and meteorological data in Pingliang city from 1984 to 2008, the main factors affecting the prevalence of summer stripe rust of wheat stripe rust, the incidence of autumn seedling and the spring of next year were screened and applied Stepwise regression method was established in this city wheat stripe rust more summer bacteria, autumn seedlings disease, the spring of next year trend forecast model. The test results show that the prediction accuracy of the model reaches 73.9% ~ 82.6%. It is very important to accurately predict the short, medium and long-term epidemic trends of wheat stripe rust and to guide the local and even winter wheat growing areas to carry out comprehensive management in a timely manner and to control their harm in a timely manner.