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三维地质建模技术作为精细油藏描述和储层表征的重要组成部分,有效推动了油藏描述技术从定性到定量的转化,为开发后期井型井网的调整和剩余油分布规律的揭示提供了地质基础。以大庆油田T区块为研究对象,综合运用地震、地质、测井、取心资料,采用多步建模思路,建立油藏沉积微相模型和属性参数模型。最后针对储层参数不确定性问题的来源,运用随机建模技术和地质统计学等方法,分析储层不确定性参数的变化范围和规律,特别是针对变差函数中变程求取的不确定性所产生的油藏储量风险评价问题,引入概率储量,采用Monte Carlo方法,对各个参数的概率累计分布函数进行随机抽样,对地质储量分布概率进行统计和不确定性分析。研究表明,此方法基于对储量参数值范围的认识和评估,可以针对不同的独立变量的不确定性进行量化估计,从而计算油藏储量的概率分布,定量分析对模拟结果的影响,预测储层存在的风险和潜力,同时也为油藏数值模拟提供了一组优选的三维地质模型。
As an important part of fine reservoir description and reservoir characterization, 3D geological modeling technology effectively promoted the qualitative and quantitative transformation of reservoir description techniques, providing the adjustment of well pattern and the disclosure of remaining oil distribution pattern in the late stage of development The geological basis. Taking the T block in Daqing Oilfield as the research object, the reservoir sedimentary microfacies model and attribute parameter model are established by synthetically using the seismic, geologic, well logging and coring data and multi-step modeling method. Finally, according to the source of reservoir parameter uncertainties, we use stochastic modeling techniques and geostatistics methods to analyze the range and law of reservoir uncertainty parameters, especially for the variable function The risk of reservoir reserves caused by certainty is introduced, the probability reserves are introduced, the probability cumulative distribution function of each parameter is randomly sampled by Monte Carlo method, and the statistical and uncertainty analysis of the probability distribution of geological reserves is made. The research shows that this method is based on the recognition and evaluation of the range of reserve parameters. It can estimate the uncertainty of different independent variables, calculate the probability distribution of reservoir reserves, quantitatively analyze the influence on the simulation results, predict the reservoir It also provides a set of optimal 3D geological models for reservoir numerical simulation.