本文以沪深全部上市公司1990～2004年的IPO面板数据,运用多元回归的方法,研究市场时机行为对资本结构的影响及其持续性。研究发现,我国股市明显存在市场时机选择行为,并且对上市公司的资本结构影响显著;公司的历史估值和杠杆水平之间具有显著的负相关性,历史估值每上升一个单位,将引起账面杠杆和市值杠杆分别下降4.87和2.9个单位;进一步研究表明,中国上市公司市场时机对资本结构的影响,可以持续5～8年。 Based on the IPO panel data of all the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 1990 to 2004, this paper uses the multiple regression method to study the influence and persistence of the timing behavior of the market on the capital structure. The study finds that there is a clear market timing choice in China’s stock market and has a significant impact on the capital structure of listed companies. There is a significant negative correlation between the company’s historical valuation and the leverage level. Each rise in historical valuation will lead to a book Leverage and market value leverage decreased by 4.87 and 2.9 units respectively. Further studies showed that the timing of the market timing of China’s listed companies can affect the capital structure for 5-8 years.