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中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)2011年春季预测报告认为:2011年中国经济将延续2010年态势,GDP将增长10%以上;但是通胀压力较大,CPI指数可能突破5%。2011年中国经济将面临增长与通胀双高的趋势。居高不下的通货膨胀率、起伏不定的国际汇率、保持高位的房价……确实给我国经济的健康发展带来了阻碍。2011年是“十二五”规划的开局之年,如何协调好国际经济与国内经济、解决好中央经济与地方经济的关系,走上科学发展的正轨,是我们亟需解决的重中之重。特别是增长率、通胀率、汇率与楼价走势,更是社会各界普遍关注的焦点。为此,我们邀请天津市经济发展研究所所长王天伟撰文,就上述问题进行了精辟深入地分析与论述,现发表出来以飨读者。
China’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM) Spring 2011 Forecast Report states that: In 2011, China’s economy will continue its trend of 2010 and its GDP will grow by more than 10%. However, the inflationary pressure will push the CPI to exceed 5%. In 2011, China’s economy will face double-digit growth and inflation. High inflation, fluctuating international exchange rates and maintaining high housing prices have indeed hinder the healthy development of our economy. 2011 is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. How to coordinate the international and domestic economies, solve the relationship between the central and local economies, and embark on the right track of scientific development is the most important issue that we must address The weight. In particular, the growth rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and property price movements are the common concerns of all sectors of society. To this end, we invite Wang Tianwei, director of the Institute of Economic Development of Tianjin, to write an essay on the above issues, which has been analyzed and discussed in depth and is published to readers.