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为研究土地利用空间变化趋势,找出系列变化与其驱动因子间的关系,该文以海南昌化江下游流域为研究区域,采用CA-Markov模型,基于1998年、2008年土地利用解译数据,结合降雨、坡度、距离等因素对2018年土地利用类型进行了模拟和预测。并模拟出2009年预测数据与解译数据进行对比,得到模拟精度为77.67%,说明模型可信度较高。进一步分析了天然地类(河流、天然林)的转出与人均GDP、人均农业产值和人口数量3个地类变化驱动因子之间的关系。结果显示,天然林和河流面积主要转出变为了果园。从与变化驱动因子的关系上看,河流转出面积随着人均GDP的升高而增大,天然林在分布上主要在低人均GDP水平的地区转出;人口在20～47万规模的地区河流与天然林面积转出最多,因此,需要加强这些地区的天然资源的保护措施,改变发展模式,保护和利用好该地区的生态环境资源,该文的研究可为生态保护与资源优化配置提供决策的依据。
In order to study the spatial variation trend of land use and find out the relationship between series changes and its driving factors, this paper takes the downstream of Changhua River in Hainan as the research area, and uses CA-Markov model. Based on the data of land use interpretation in 1998 and 2008, Combining with rainfall, slope, distance and other factors, the types of land use in 2018 were simulated and predicted. And simulated the prediction data in 2009 compared with the interpretation of data, the simulation accuracy of 77.67%, indicating that the higher the credibility of the model. Further analysis was made on the relationship between the transfer of natural landforms (rivers and natural forests) and the driving forces for changes in per capita GDP, per capita agricultural output and population. The results show that the natural forest and river area turned out to be mainly orchards. From the perspective of change drivers, the outflow area of rivers increases with the increase of per capita GDP, and natural forests are mainly distributed in areas with low per capita GDP. The population is between 20 and 470,000 Therefore, the protection of natural resources in these areas needs to be strengthened to change the mode of development and to protect and make good use of the ecological and environmental resources in the area. The study of this paper can provide suggestions for ecological protection and optimal allocation of resources The basis of decision-making.