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通过对黑龙洞泉域1960~1999年共40年降水量资料的分析,计算出每10年的平均降水量用以建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,预测2000~2009年平均年降水量。然后根据降水量周期性特点,采用长系列变化趋势拟合法对GM(1,1)模型计算结果进行修正,利用AQUA3D软件,以30 d为计算步长,对2010年不同降水保证率下的泉流量进行了预测。结果表明:2010年降水保证率为20%、50%、75%的泉流量最大值分别为10.62、7.23、5.17 m3/s。
By analyzing the data of precipitation in Heilongdong spring area from 1960 to 1999 for 40 years, the average precipitation of every 10 years was calculated to establish the GM (1,1) gray prediction model and predict the average annual precipitation from 2000 to 2009. Then, according to the cyclical characteristics of precipitation, a long series of trend-changing fitting method was used to correct the calculation results of GM (1,1) model. AQUA3D software was used to calculate the step size in 30 days. Traffic is predicted. The results show that the maximum of spring flow rate of 20%, 50% and 75% in 2010 are respectively 10.62, 7.23 and 5.17 m3 / s.