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未来10年中国的经济增长仍存在着诸多的不确定性,准确预测未来经济增长还有很大的困难。但未来发展中,也存在着一些确定性趋势,我们主要分析这部分确定性趋势对经济增长的影响,从而为未来经济增长的可能前景判断提供依据。从增长核算角度看,对未来经济增长影响较大的确定性趋势有人口年龄结构变动导致的劳动力供给的变化、由政
In the next 10 years, there are still many uncertainties in China’s economic growth. It is still very difficult to accurately predict the future economic growth. However, there are some deterministic trends in the future development. We mainly analyze the impact of this part of the deterministic trend on economic growth and provide the basis for the future prospect of economic growth. From the perspective of growth accounting, the deterministic trends that have a greater impact on future economic growth are the changes in the labor supply caused by changes in the age structure of the population.