机械设计的基本要求是全面掌握零件的承载能力(如强度、刚度、稳定性等)和载荷两方面的数据。但是,在实际设计中,由于许多原因,有些参数往往不得不由设计者凭经验估计。以载荷为例,我们就凭经验判定某构件的负载为“50KN”左右。这种含糊说法屡见不鲜。实际上,根据经验判断选取参数,在设计工作中是允许的。问题是能否进一步由此求出零件的失效概率进行可靠性预报,本文将对这个问题进行讨论。 The basic requirements of mechanical design is to fully grasp the carrying capacity of parts (such as strength, stiffness, stability, etc.) and load the two aspects of the data. However, in practical design, some parameters often have to be empirically estimated by the designer for many reasons. Taking the load as an example, we empirically determine that the load of a component is about 50KN. This vague statement is not uncommon. In fact, judging the parameters based on experience is allowed in the design work. The question is whether we can further find out the probability of failure of parts for reliability prediction. This article will discuss this issue.