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目的 探讨上海市乙脑发病率下降的主要影响因素。方法 分析上海市历年来的生态因素 ,如气象条件、水田种植面积、猪饲养数、蚊虫密度、猪群和人群的抗体水平等与近 5 0年来乙脑发病率长期变异关系。结果 水田种植面积和猪饲养数的增多可能是 196 5～ 196 7年乙脑流行的原因 ,但对 196 8年以后乙脑发病率下降影响不大。 196 8年以后乙脑发病率的大幅度下降可能与乙脑疫苗接种率的提高有关。结论 乙脑疫苗的免疫接种对预防和控制乙脑起重要作用 ,乙脑疫苗接种仍需持续。
Objective To investigate the main influencing factors of the decline of the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in Shanghai. Methods The long-term variation of the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in the past 50 years was analyzed by analyzing the ecological factors in Shanghai over the years, such as meteorological conditions, paddy field area, pig breeding, mosquito density, antibody level of pigs and population. Results The increase of paddy field area and the number of pigs in the paddy field may be the reason of the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis from 196 to 196 years. However, the incidence of Japanese encephalitis decreased little after 196 years. 196 After 8 years, the sharp decline in the incidence of Japanese encephalitis may be related to the increase of the Japanese encephalitis vaccination rate. Conclusion The immunization of Japanese encephalitis B vaccine plays an important role in the prevention and control of Japanese encephalitis. Japanese encephalitis vaccine need to be continued.