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海湾六国计划在2010年建立单一货币联盟,而经济周期同步性是货币联盟稳定性的重要基础条件。本文从经济周期同步性角度考察海湾六国是否具备货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。本文通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型(VECM),并依据共同趋势和共同周期理论,对海湾六国的经济周期同步性进行了经验分析。分析结果表明:海湾六国不仅在长期内经济周期有共同的随机发展趋势;而且在短期内,经济周期是完全同步的。因此,海湾六国基本上满足货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。
The six Gulf countries plan to establish a single currency union in 2010, and the economic cycle synchronization is an important basic condition for the stability of the currency union. This paper examines whether the six Gulf countries have the basic conditions for the stability of a currency union from the perspective of the economic cycle synchronization. In this paper, we establish a multivariate vector error correction model (VECM), and based on common trends and common cycle theory, empirical analysis of the economic cyclical synchronization of the six Gulf countries. The analysis results show that the six Gulf countries not only share a common random trend in the long run, but also have a completely synchronized economic cycle in the short run. Therefore, the six Gulf countries basically meet the stability of the monetary union basic conditions.