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考虑大型装备研制项目的技术风险主要是由项目过程的不确定性和项目过程能力两个要素共同作用决定的,以单项技术为评价单元,建立一种新的风险博弈方基于极大熵准则选择博弈策略,项目主体方跟随风险博弈方的策略,以自身收益最大化的原则做出策略选择的博弈模型,并利用博弈双方的博弈收益值的映射关系表征技术风险指数。针对V 2500发动机技术展开算例研究,证明了上述模型及算法的有效性和可行性,为大型装备研制项目技术风险指数测度提供了一种新的分析方法和研究思路。
Considering the technical risk of large equipment development project is mainly determined by the combination of the uncertainty of the project process and the project process capability, a new risk game player is established based on the maximum entropy criterion with the single technology as the evaluation unit Game strategy, the main part of the project follows the strategy of risk game side and makes the game model of strategic choice with the principle of maximizing its own revenue. The game risk index is represented by the mapping relationship between the game return values of the two parties. A case study of V 2500 engine technology is carried out, which proves the validity and feasibility of the above models and algorithms, and provides a new analysis method and research ideas for measuring technology risk index of large equipment development project.