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本文利用新近发展的面板协整技术和面板误差修正模型来判断我国能源消费与经济增长之间的长期趋势和短期波动情况,然后使用门限回归模型分析能源消费对于经济增长的作用是否存在一种结构变动,进而促使经济发展在跨越某一阶段后减少对于能源消费的依赖。研究结果表明了能源消费与经济增长存在着长期的协整关系,但地区间差异较大;并且存在着以能源强度为门槛变量的非线性转化关系,当能源利用效率较低时,经济增长是以资本和能源消耗为基础的;而当能源利用效率提高时,经济增长则依靠于资本和劳动投入,且两者的影响程度趋同,而对于能源投入的依赖程度下降。
In this paper, the recent development of panel co-integration technology and panel error correction model to determine China’s energy consumption and economic growth between the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations, and then use the threshold regression model to analyze the role of energy consumption for economic growth there is a structure Change, and then to promote economic development to reduce dependence on energy consumption after crossing a certain stage. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, but there are significant differences among regions. And there is a nonlinear transformation relationship based on energy intensity as a threshold variable. When energy efficiency is low, economic growth is Based on capital and energy consumption; and when energy efficiency increases, economic growth relies on capital and labor inputs, and the degree of impact of the two converges while the dependence on energy inputs declines.