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通过扩展Bala&Van Long(2005)的偏好选择模型,本文构建了包括三个国家和三种产品的动态偏好选择模型,从理论上论证了相对经济规模和文化亲近对于文化贸易的重要性;并通过扩展传统引力模型,采用2003—2012年中国与38个国家或地区的文化产品出口贸易面板数据,从整体层面、分类型和分地区三个方面分别探讨决定了中国文化产品出口贸易的主要因素。总体上看,相对经济规模变化是中国文化贸易快速发展的重要决定因素,分类型与分地区文化产品出口的影响因素存在差异性。但是,相对经济规模对文化贸易的促进作用并不是绝对的,中国文化贸易未来的发展还需依靠独一无二的内容、政策支持,以及国内文化产品的竞合。
By extending the preference selection model of Bala & Van Long (2005), this paper constructs a dynamic preference selection model that includes three countries and three products and theoretically demonstrates the importance of relative economic size and cultural affinity to cultural trade. By extending The traditional gravitation model uses the panel data of export trade of cultural products between China and 38 countries or regions from 2003 to 2012 and discusses the main factors that determine the export trade of Chinese cultural products from the aspects of overall level, classification type and sub-regions respectively. In general, the relative size of the economy is an important determinant of the rapid development of China’s cultural trade. There are differences in the factors influencing the export of cultural products by type and region. However, the promotion of cultural trade by relative economic scale is not absolute. The future development of China’s cultural trade still needs to rely on unique content, policy support and the co-operation of domestic cultural products.