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目的结合GM(1,1)直接建模法和马尔柯夫预测原理,构建灰色马尔柯夫预测模型,预测出院量人次,为医院的管理决策提供统计学依据。方法根据福建某医院2005年-2015年的出院量数据,应用MATLAB软件,通过直接建模法建立出院量的GM(1,1)模型,结合马尔柯夫预测原理,对原始数据进行3个状态区间的划分,并由转移概率矩阵确定未来状态,从而得到最终预测值。结果 2013年-2015年预测值的相对误差分别为0.05%,0.35%和0.14%,2016年出院量预测值为108 335人次,增长率约为15.38%。结论灰色马尔柯夫预测模型较单独使用GM(1,1)模型,精度有显著的提高,预测结果将为科学的管理医院提供可靠的依据。?
Objective To establish gray Markov forecasting model based on the GM (1,1) direct modeling method and Markov forecasting theory, predict the number of people discharged and provide the statistical basis for the hospital management decision-making. Methods According to the discharge data of a hospital from 2005 to 2015 in Fujian province, the GM (1,1) model of discharge was established by using the direct modeling method with MATLAB software. Based on the Markov forecasting principle, the raw data were analyzed by three states The division of intervals, and the transition probability matrix to determine the future state, so as to get the final prediction. Results The relative errors of the predicted values from 2013 to 2015 were 0.05%, 0.35% and 0.14% respectively. The estimated discharge amount in 2016 was 108,335, with a growth rate of about 15.38%. Conclusion Compared with the GM (1,1) model alone, the gray Markov forecasting model has significantly improved the accuracy, and the forecasting results will provide a reliable basis for the scientific management of hospitals. ?