广州地区新型冠状病毒确诊病例及无症状感染者流行病学特征分析

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目的:对广州地区新型冠状(简称新冠)病毒核酸阳性病例包括有临床症状的确诊病例和无临床症状的隐性感染者进行流行病学特征分析。方法:对广州市2020年1月至9月检测到的新冠病毒核酸阳性病例,收集流行病学相关资料,分析确诊病例/无症状感染者其流行病学特征、确诊/隔离日期和首次核酸阳性间隔天数分布特征、探讨确诊病例和无症状感染者的影响因素。结果:2020年1月7日至9月4日共发现1 097例核酸阳性病例,包括658份确诊病例(59.98%),无症状感染者439份(40.02%)。确诊病例中位数年龄(M值)为42岁,出现两个明显高峰,分别和湖北输入及关联病例,境外输入及关联病例有关。无症状感染者年龄M值为32岁,可分为两个阶段,第一阶段紧随确诊病例的第二高峰,第二阶段和广州进入疫情常态化防控时期出现的确诊病例重叠,主要和境外输入有关。其中境外输入无症状感染者占总输入阳性病例的57.32%。两种不同类型病例中,咽拭子阳性率都高于鼻咽拭子及肛拭子。确诊病例和无症状感染者年龄、感染来源及性别构成差异均有统计学意义(n P<0.05)。高年龄组更容易出现临床症状,与0~19岁组相比,≥40岁为确诊病例的危险因素(OR=2.334,n P=0.001),而20~39岁更不容易出现临床症状(OR=0.620,n P=0.047)。与境内感染者相比,境外感染者更不容易出现临床症状成为确诊病例(OR=0.723,n P=0.013);与男性相比,女性更容易出现临床症状(OR=1.574,n P=0.001)。n 结论:目前广州地区新冠病毒无症状感染者和有临床症状的确诊病例共同存在,且无症状感染者数量高于确诊病例。高年龄、境内感染及女性可能是确诊病例的危险因素,值得深入探讨其背后机制,为治疗及防控提供依据。“,”Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus positive cases including confirmed cases with clinical symptoms and asymptomatic infected cases in Guangzhou.Methods:Epidemiological data were collected on the nucleic acid positive cases of COVID-19 in Guangzhou from January to September 2020. The epidemiological characteristics, the distribution of time intervals between the confirmed/isolation date and the date of the first positive detection were analyzed, at last the influencing factors for the confirmed cases and asymptomatic infected persons were discussed.Results:From January 7 to September 4 in 2020, a total of 1 097 nucleic acid positive cases were identified, including 658 confirmed cases (59.98%) and 439 asymptomatic infected cases (40.02%). Among the 658 confirmed cases, the median age was 42 years old, the cases indicated two significant peaks. one of the peaks was related to the imported and associated cases from Hubei province, and the other peak was connected with individuals from overseas. In terms of 439 asymptomatic infected cases, the median age was 32 years old. There were two stages in these cases. The first stage followed the second peak of confirmed cases, and the second stage overlapped with the confirmed cases in Guangzhou when the epidemic was in a period of normal prevention and control, mainly related to imported cases from abroad. The asymptomatic infected persons accounted for 57.32% in all the imported infected cases. In both of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, the positive rate of pharyngeal swabs was higher than that of nasopharyngeal swabs and anal swabs. There were statistically significant differences in age, source of infection and gender composition between confirmed cases and asymptomatic infected persons (n P<0.05). Older age groups were more likely to have clinical symptoms, with ≥40 years being the risk factor for confirmed cases (OR=2.334,n P=0.001), and 20-39 years less likely to have clinical symptoms (OR=0.620, n P=0.047), compared with the 0-19 years old group. Compared with those infected in China, those infected abroad were less likely to develop clinical symptoms and became confirmed cases (OR=0.723, n P=0.013). Women were more likely to have clinical symptoms than men (OR=1.574, n P=0.001).n Conclusions:At present, asymptomatic infected persons and confirmed patients with clinical symptoms co-existed, and the number of asymptomatic infected patients was higher than that of confirmed cases in Guangzhou. High age, domestic infection and female may be risk factors for confirmed cases. It was of great value to further explore these underlying mechanisms for the prevention and treatment of the COVID-19.
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