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采用比较膨化相关法及逐步回归对福建龙眼主产地的鲤城区（原泉州市）３２ａ（１９６１－１９９２年）的生产统计及气象资料进行分析，筛选出１６个与龙眼气象产率关系密切的气象因子，并结合１０ａ滑动相关分析对各因子与龙眼产量的关系进行分析讨论．依据岭回归系数及按生育期将筛选出的因子组成为７个生育期气象综合因子，应用主成分分析因子负荷率计算方法得出这些因子对龙眼气象产率的负荷率依次为：（１）夏梢生长期（０．３４５９）＞（２）花期（０．２０９５）＞（３）秋梢生长期（０．０８５０）＞（４）花穗形态迅速分化期（０．０８３２）＞（５）花芽生理分化期（０．０７１１）＞（６）前期生理落果期（０．０５４３）＞（７）第二次生理落果期（０．０２１８）．其中夏梢及秋梢结果母枝或结果母枝基枝生长期负荷率之和约占总负荷率的５０％，对翌年的龙眼生产影响甚大
The comparative statistics and meteorological data of 32a (1961-1992) in Licheng District (formerly Quanzhou), the main producing area of longan in Fujian Province, were analyzed by using comparative puffing correlation method and stepwise regression. Sixteen meteorological stations Factor, combined with the 10a sliding correlation analysis of factors and longan output relationship analysis and discussion. Based on the ridge regression coefficient and the factors selected according to the growth period, the climatic factors of seven growth stages were composed. The principal components analysis factor loading rate method was used to calculate the loading rates of these factors on the longan meteorological yield as follows: (1) (2) Flowering period (0.2095)> (3) Autumn shoot growth stage (0.0850)> (4) Spikelet differentiation stage (0.0832)> (5) ) Physiological differentiation stage (0.0711)> (6) Physiological deciduous stage (0.0543)> (7) Physiological deciduous stage (0.0218). Among them, the sum of the summer and autumn shoots or the results of the parent branch of the twig branch of the growth rate of the sum of about 50% of the total load rate, the production of longan the next year has a great impact