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利用1980—2009年的相关数据,通过协整理论、向量误差修正模型以及脉冲响应和方差分解等方法,对煤炭生产、煤炭消费和经济增长进行动态特性研究。结果表明,经济增长和煤炭生产与消费之间存在协整关系且具有长期均衡关系,煤炭的生产弹性大于煤炭的消费弹性,煤炭生产和消费与经济增长存在正相关关系,煤炭生产和煤炭消费的增加有利于经济的增长。短期内,煤炭生产量和消费量与经济增长存在单向的Granger因果关系。同时,从脉冲响应和方差分解分析看,煤炭生产对经济增长具有持续拉动作用,煤炭消费在滞后4期之后对经济增长的影响趋于平稳,煤炭消费对经济增长的影响不如煤炭生产对经济增长的影响。
Based on the relevant data from 1980 to 2009, the dynamic characteristics of coal production, coal consumption and economic growth were studied through cointegration theory, vector error correction model, impulse response and variance decomposition. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship and long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and coal production and consumption, the production elasticity of coal is greater than the consumption elasticity of coal, there is a positive correlation between coal production and consumption and economic growth, and coal production and coal consumption Increase is conducive to economic growth. In the short term, there is a one-way Granger causality between coal production and consumption and economic growth. At the same time, from the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, coal production has a continuous pulling effect on economic growth. Coal consumption after the lag phase 4 tends to stabilize the economic growth. The impact of coal consumption on economic growth is not as good as that of coal production on economic growth Impact.