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基于自然灾害系统论,结合灾区实地调查结果和部分适时气象、水文资料,从降雨、洪水、灾情以及减灾模式等对湖南省湘江流域2006年“7.15”暴雨-洪水巨灾进行了分析。结果表明:农村的主要致灾因子是洪水、内涝、滑坡、泥石流,而城市主要为内涝;此次巨灾是在强热带风暴引发的暴雨、湘江流域中上游多山的地形条件等自然因素,和工程建设不合理、灾害预警机制不够完善、人们防灾意识薄弱以及灾害风险转移机制不够成熟等人为因素的共同作用下导致的。在此基础之上,提出了建立综合减灾范式、提高巨灾应急管理能力等应对巨灾的对策。
Based on the theory of natural disaster system, the “7.15” heavy rain and flood catastrophe in Xiangjiang River Basin in Hunan Province was analyzed based on the results of field investigation and some timely meteorological and hydrological data from rainfall, flood, disaster and disaster mitigation models. The results show that flood disaster, waterlogging, landslide and debris flow are the main hazard factors in rural areas, while the main waterlogging is in urban areas. This catastrophe is a natural factor such as heavy rain caused by strong tropical storm and mountainous topography in the middle and upper reaches of the Xiangjiang River. And the irrational project construction, the disaster warning mechanism is not perfect enough, people’s awareness of disaster prevention and disaster risk transfer mechanism is not mature enough and other human factors caused by the combined effect. On this basis, the countermeasures of coping with catastrophe such as establishing a comprehensive disaster reduction paradigm and improving catastrophe emergency management capability are put forward.