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探讨广义相加模型在分析气温、相对湿度等气象要素与医院日创伤疾病急诊人次相关性中的应用.收集北京3家综合性医院2008-2012年日创伤患者资料和同期北京市的气象和环境数据资料,根据赤池信息量准则,在控制长期趋势、短期波动、节假日效应以及污染条件等混杂因素的基础上,构建日创伤急诊就诊人次与气象要素之间的广义相加模型,并绘制暴露-反应关系曲线.经广义相加模型分析,医院日创伤急诊就诊人次与日均气温和气压表现出一定的线性正相关和负相关趋势,尤其是气温低于24.5℃时,气压介于1 007~1020hPa之间时,线性变化显著.与日均相对湿度和日照时数表现为复杂的非线性相关,当相对湿度为50%~70%时,相对危险度最高,当日照时数达到9 h时相对危险度最低.针对创伤疾病,利用广义相加模型进行气象要素的作用分析和拟合比较合理.
To investigate the application of generalized additive model in the analysis of the correlation between meteorological elements such as temperature and relative humidity and emergency attendance of Japanese trauma patients in each hospital.Gathering the data of trauma patients in Beijing from 2008 to 2012 and the weather and environment in Beijing According to the data of Chi-Chi, this paper constructs a generalized additive model between the number of visits and the meteorological elements of sun-trauma emergency based on the information of the Chi-Chi information criterion and the control of long-term trends, short-term fluctuations, holiday effects and pollution conditions. Response curve.According to the generalized additive model, the number of daily visits and daily mean temperature and pressure in Japanese hospitals showed a certain linear positive correlation and negative correlation trend, especially when the temperature was below 24.5 ℃, the pressure ranged from 1 007 ~ When the relative humidity is 50% -70%, the relative risk is the highest. When the number of sunshine hours reaches 9 h The relative risk is the lowest.For traumatic diseases, the use of generalized additive model to analyze the role of meteorological elements and fitting more reasonable.