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文章通过建立国际投入产出模型分析了中国与东盟产业合作对双方GDP的影响及其途径,以7个产业合作部门为研究对象,利用2011年ADB-MRIO表的数据分别测算了在两种极端情形下,中国与东盟产业合作对各个国家GDP的拉动效应,并对总的影响效果做了综合评价。文章的研究发现:(1)中国与东盟产业合作对于双方而言都是有利的,但对于东盟国家GDP的拉动效应更加明显,从长期来看,对东盟国家经济增长也更为有利;(2)中国与印尼、菲律宾的产业合作能够最大程度地拉动双方GDP增长,而中国与越南产业合作对于双方GDP的拉动效应最弱;(3)中国与东盟国家产业合作对GDP拉动效应最明显的部门是其他非金属矿物制品业,其次是机械设备制造业和皮革与制鞋业,而纺织业的产业合作对GDP的影响最小。
The paper analyzes the impact of China-ASEAN industrial cooperation on both parties’ GDP and the ways to establish it through the establishment of an international input-output model. Taking the seven industry cooperation sectors as the research object and the 2011 ADB-MRIO table data, Situation, the pulling effect of the industrial cooperation between China and ASEAN on the GDP of various countries, and make a comprehensive evaluation of the overall impact. The study found that: (1) China-ASEAN industrial cooperation is beneficial to both sides, but the pulling effect on ASEAN’s GDP is more obvious. In the long run, it is more favorable to economic growth in ASEAN countries. (2) ) The industrial cooperation between China and Indonesia and the Philippines can maximize the GDP growth of both sides, while the industrial cooperation between China and Vietnam has the weakest pulling effect on the GDP of both sides. (3) The sector with the most obvious effect on pulling GDP by industrial cooperation between China and ASEAN countries Is the other non-metallic mineral products industry, followed by machinery and equipment manufacturing and leather and footwear industries, while the textile industry’s industrial cooperation has the least impact on GDP.