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在深入研究滑坡变形特征的基础上,以大冶铁矿东露天采场狮子山北帮滑坡位移监测数据为依据,采用灰色理论,将滑坡的预测模型与滑坡运动特征相结合,推导出传统GM(1,1)模型和优化的GM(1,1)模型,通过验算比较,优化的GM(1,1)模型预测曲线与实测曲线的拐点及发展趋势高度吻合,模拟精度高,预测值可信度大,对临滑滑坡也有一定的预警意义.优化的GM(1,1)模型可以用于中长期预测模型.
Based on the in-depth study of deformation characteristics of landslides, based on the monitoring data of the Bei-Pei landslide displacement in the east open pit of Daye Iron Mine, the gray theory was used to combine the landslide prediction model and landslide movement features to derive the traditional GM 1,1) model and the optimized GM (1,1) model, the optimized GM (1,1) model’s prediction curve is highly consistent with the measured curve’s inflection point and development trend through the checking and comparison. The simulation accuracy is high and the prediction value is credible It also has certain warning significance to the landslide with landslide.The optimized GM (1,1) model can be used in medium and long term prediction model.